{"id":629,"date":"2008-10-19T20:04:14","date_gmt":"2008-10-19T20:04:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/elli.annall.is\/?p=629"},"modified":"2008-10-19T20:04:14","modified_gmt":"2008-10-19T20:04:14","slug":"hlutfall-skulda-af-veltu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/2008\/10\/19\/hlutfall-skulda-af-veltu\/","title":{"rendered":"Hlutfall skulda af veltu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an sl\u00f3 \u00e9g \u00e1 a\u00f0 \u00ed besta falli eru skuldir bankanna 4000 millj\u00f6r\u00f0um h\u00e6rri en eignir. Upph\u00e6\u00f0 sem lendir \u00e1 R\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0i a\u00f0 gl\u00edma vi\u00f0, alla vega a\u00f0 hluta. \u00cd versta falli er \u00e1standi\u00f0 anna\u00f0 og alvarlegra. Skuldir bankanna umfram skuldir g\u00e6tu allt eins veri\u00f0 8000 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na ef tryggingar fyrir eignum eru ekki bur\u00f0ugar. Eitthva\u00f0 af skuldum bankanna lendir sj\u00e1lfsagt \u00e1 l\u00e1nveitendum sem munu bera harm sinn en v\u00e6ntanlega ekki \u00ed hlj\u00f3\u00f0i, hversu miki\u00f0 er alls \u00f3lj\u00f3st. En h\u00f6ldum okkur vi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 t\u00f6lu sem \u00e9g tel a\u00f0 s\u00e9 l\u00e6gsta m\u00f6gulega upph\u00e6\u00f0 sem R\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0ur mun sitja uppi me\u00f0 e\u00f0a 4000 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na. \u00dea\u00f0 er mj\u00f6g bjarts\u00fdnt og \u00e9g veit \u00fea\u00f0 vel. Gefum okkur \u00fev\u00ed n\u00e6st a\u00f0 upph\u00e6\u00f0in f\u00e1ist a\u00f0 fullu a\u00f0 l\u00e1ni fr\u00e1 IMF me\u00f0 4,5% v\u00f6xtum sem er l\u00edklega ekki langt fr\u00e1 \u00e1v\u00f6xtunarkr\u00f6fu IMF. Segjum sem svo a\u00f0 um jafngrei\u00f0slul\u00e1n til 40 \u00e1ra s\u00e9 a\u00f0 r\u00e6\u00f0a til a\u00f0 au\u00f0velda vangavelturnar og \u00fe\u00e1 f\u00e1um vi\u00f0 \u00fat a\u00f0 afborganir \u00e1 \u00e1ri s\u00e9u a.m.k. \u00ed kringum 215 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na \u00e1 \u00e1ri. Tekjur r\u00edkisins hafa undanfarin \u00e1r veri\u00f0 um 475 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na og \u00fev\u00ed er lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 skera ni\u00f0ur um 45% \u00ed \u00fatgj\u00f6ldum ef tekjur haldast \u00f3breyttar, sem ver\u00f0ur a\u00f0 telja \u00f3l\u00edklegt \u00ed lj\u00f3si aukins atvinnuleysis og hruns heillar atvinnugreinar.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>En segjum sem svo a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00feurfum einv\u00f6r\u00f0ungu a\u00f0 skera ni\u00f0ur sem nemur 215 millj\u00f6r\u00f0um kr\u00f3na. Hva\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir \u00fea\u00f0? \u00c9g lag\u00f0i til atl\u00f6gu vi\u00f0 Fj\u00e1rlagafrumvarpi\u00f0 2008 til a\u00f0 sj\u00e1 hva\u00f0 \u00e9g g\u00e6ti skori\u00f0 ni\u00f0ur \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 k\u00e6mi me\u00f0 beinum h\u00e6tti ni\u00f0ur \u00e1 grunn\u00fej\u00f3nustu samf\u00e9lagsins. Mikilv\u00e6gt er a\u00f0 taka fram a\u00f0 sumir \u00fe\u00e6ttir sem \u00e9g sker ni\u00f0ur munu ekki l\u00ed\u00f0a me\u00f0 beinum h\u00e6tti heldur f\u00e6rast yfir \u00e1 almenning me\u00f0 einum e\u00f0a \u00f6\u00f0rum h\u00e6tti. Alls tel \u00e9g a\u00f0 h\u00e6gt s\u00e9 a\u00f0 skera ni\u00f0ur um 93.600 millj\u00f3nir kr\u00f3na \u00e1 einum eftirmi\u00f0degi ef algj\u00f6rlega er horft framhj\u00e1 hagsmunum frj\u00e1lsra f\u00e9lagasamtaka sem \u00e6ttu \u00ed raun a\u00f0 hafa metna\u00f0 til a\u00f0 standa \u00ed fjarl\u00e6g\u00f0 fr\u00e1 r\u00edkiskrananum og me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 afnema \u00fdmiskonar sporslur sem auka fl\u00e6kjustig kerfisins. \u00c9g l\u00e9t heilbrig\u00f0iskerfi\u00f0 og menntakerfi\u00f0 a\u00f0 mestu \u00ed fri\u00f0i (skar reyndar ni\u00f0ur Versl\u00f3), \u00fear sem \u00fea\u00f0 er yfirleitt mun fl\u00f3knara en svo a\u00f0 h\u00e6gt s\u00e9 a\u00f0 horfa \u00e1 l\u00ednuna \u00ed fj\u00e1rlagafrumvarpinu og segja anna\u00f0 hvort inn e\u00f0a \u00fat. Hins vegar \u00feyrfti a\u00f0 fara mj\u00f6g \u00edtarlega \u00ed gegnum \u00fe\u00e1 li\u00f0i einnig. Alla vega er lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 er h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 skera verulega fitu af fj\u00e1rl\u00f6gum ef ney\u00f0 kallar \u00e1 \u00fea\u00f0. 93.600 millj\u00f3nir duga skammt til a\u00f0 dekka 215.000 millj\u00f3na afborgun \u00e1 \u00e1ri, en er \u00fe\u00f3 alltaf \u00ed \u00e1ttina. H\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an er upptalning \u00e1 \u00feeim li\u00f0um sem g\u00e6tu hva\u00f0 au\u00f0veldast horfi\u00f0 \u00far r\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0i.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Forseti \u00cdslands\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 196\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Lagt ni\u00f0ur, \u00d3lafur m\u00e1 halda titlinum og ef Dorrit vill kaupa Bessasta\u00f0i, \u00fe\u00e1 er \u00fea\u00f0 bara f\u00ednt.<\/li>\n<li>Al\u00feingi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.200\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Allur stofnkostna\u00f0ur og \u00fer\u00f3unarkostna\u00f0ur lag\u00f0ur af, f\u00e6kkun \u00feingmanna um 30, afl\u00f6g\u00f0 framl\u00f6g til \u00feingflokka<\/li>\n<li>R\u00edkisstj\u00f3rn\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 165\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 30% ni\u00f0urskur\u00f0ur<\/li>\n<li>Fors\u00e6tisr\u00e1\u00f0un.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 310\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ni\u00f0urskur\u00f0ur allra g\u00e6luverkefna og s\u00e9rsj\u00f3\u00f0a, norr\u00e6na r\u00e1\u00f0herranefnd., stofnk. bygginga og hva\u00f0eina.<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0 1.301\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00e1sk\u00f3linn \u00e1 Akureyri<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 385\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00f3lask\u00f3li<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 275\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00e1sk\u00f3linn \u00e1 Bifr\u00f6st<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar. \u00a0 1.859\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00e1sk\u00f3linn \u00ed Reykjav\u00edk<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 160\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Marka\u00f0s\u00e1\u00e6tlun \u00e1 svi\u00f0i v\u00edsinda og t\u00e6kni<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 723\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Stofnkostna\u00f0ur framhaldssk\u00f3la<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 49\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u00fasstj\u00f3rnarsk\u00f3lar<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 837\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Verslunarsk\u00f3li \u00cdslands<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 898\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ddmis s\u00f6fn og listasj\u00f3\u00f0ir<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 632\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kvikmyndami\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0 \u00cdslands<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar. \u00a0 \u00a0 898\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Listir, \u00fdmis framl\u00f6g<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 243\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00c6skul\u00fd\u00f0sm\u00e1l<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 485\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00cd\u00fer\u00f3ttam\u00e1l<\/li>\n<li>Menntam\u00e1lar.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 634\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00d3skilgreind ey\u00f0sla<\/li>\n<li>Utanr.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Allt burt nema S\u00de, Al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0asj\u00f3\u00f0ir og skrifstofa sem yr\u00f0i skorin vi\u00f0 n\u00f6gl.<\/li>\n<li>Sj\u00e1var\u00fatv.\/landb.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hafr\u00f3 og ranns\u00f3knarst\u00f6fur haldi s\u00e9r, anna\u00f0 ekki<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f3msm\u00e1lar\u00e1\u00f0un \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 248 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00fdmis verkefni<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f3msm\u00e1lar\u00e1\u00f0un\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.474\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00dej\u00f3\u00f0kirkjan<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f3msm\u00e1lar\u00e1\u00f0un\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 284\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kirkjum\u00e1lasj\u00f3\u00f0ur<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f3msm\u00e1lar\u00e1\u00f0un\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kristnisj\u00f3\u00f0ur<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f3msm\u00e1lar\u00e1\u00f0un\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 2.220\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 S\u00f3knargj\u00f3ld<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f3msm\u00e1lar\u00e1\u00f0un \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 367\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 J\u00f6fnunarsj\u00f3\u00f0ur s\u00f3kna<\/li>\n<li>F\u00e9lagsm.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 106\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ddmislegt<\/li>\n<li>F\u00e9lagsm.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 300\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Leigu\u00edb\u00fa\u00f0ir<\/li>\n<li>F\u00e9lagsm.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 1.276\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Framkv.sj. aldra\u00f0ra<\/li>\n<li>F\u00e9lagsm.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 F\u00e9lagsm.sk. al\u00fe\u00fd\u00f0u<\/li>\n<li>F\u00e9lagsm.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 1.050\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 F\u00e9lagsm\u00e1l, \u00fdmislegt<\/li>\n<li>Heilbrig\u00f0isr. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 299\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 L\u00fd\u00f0heilsust\u00f6\u00f0<\/li>\n<li>Heilbrig\u00f0isr.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 800\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bygg. h\u00e1t\u00e6knisj\u00fakrah.<\/li>\n<li>Heilbrig\u00f0isr. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 602\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 S\u00c1\u00c1<\/li>\n<li>Heilbrig\u00f0isr. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 1.172\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Heilbrig\u00f0ism\u00e1l, \u00fdmis<\/li>\n<li>Fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lar. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 8.800\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Barnab\u00e6tur<\/li>\n<li>Fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lar. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 5.880\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Vaxtab\u00e6tur<\/li>\n<li>Fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lar. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 1.500\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fyrrum varnasv\u00e6\u00f0i<\/li>\n<li>Fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lar. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 200\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 R\u00edkisstj\u00f3rnar\u00e1kvar\u00f0anir<\/li>\n<li>Fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lar. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 850\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ddmislegt<\/li>\n<li>Samg.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 365\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ddmis verkefni<\/li>\n<li>Samg.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 24.637\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Stofnkostna\u00f0ur<\/li>\n<li>Samg.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 2.072\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hafnir stofnkostn.<\/li>\n<li>Samg.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 1.824\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Flugvellir stofnkostn.<\/li>\n<li>Samg.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 366\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fer\u00f0am\u00e1lastofa<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 383\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00fdsk\u00f6punarmi\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 600\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 T\u00e6kni\u00fer\u00f3unarsj\u00f3\u00f0ur<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 259\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Samt\u00f6k i\u00f0na\u00f0arins<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 202\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 I\u00f0ja og i\u00f0na\u00f0ur<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 826\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bygg\u00f0a\u00e1\u00e6tlun\/Bygg\u00f0astofnun<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 391\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fer\u00f0am\u00e1lastofa<\/li>\n<li>I\u00f0n.r\u00e1\u00f0un.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 292\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ddmis fer\u00f0am\u00e1l<\/li>\n<li>Umhverfisr.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 293\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ddmis verkefni<\/li>\n<li>Umhverfisr. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 15\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1tt\u00faruranns\u00f3knarst. vi\u00f0 M\u00fdvatn<\/li>\n<li>Umhverfisr.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 312\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sk\u00f3gr\u00e6kt<\/li>\n<li>Umhverfisr. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 33\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Stofnun Vilhj\u00e1lms Stef<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an sl\u00f3 \u00e9g \u00e1 a\u00f0 \u00ed besta falli eru skuldir bankanna 4000 millj\u00f6r\u00f0um h\u00e6rri en eignir. Upph\u00e6\u00f0 sem lendir \u00e1 R\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0i a\u00f0 gl\u00edma vi\u00f0, alla vega a\u00f0 hluta. \u00cd versta falli er \u00e1standi\u00f0 anna\u00f0 og alvarlegra. Skuldir bankanna umfram skuldir g\u00e6tu allt eins veri\u00f0 8000 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na ef tryggingar fyrir eignum eru ekki &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/2008\/10\/19\/hlutfall-skulda-af-veltu\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Hlutfall skulda af veltu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[21,85],"class_list":["post-629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-islenska","tag-business","tag-hruni"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}