{"id":622,"date":"2008-10-19T02:26:49","date_gmt":"2008-10-19T02:26:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/elli.annall.is\/?p=622"},"modified":"2008-10-19T02:26:49","modified_gmt":"2008-10-19T02:26:49","slug":"hvad-skuldum-vid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/2008\/10\/19\/hvad-skuldum-vid\/","title":{"rendered":"Hva\u00f0 skuldum vi\u00f0?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Spurningin sem \u00f6llu m\u00e1li skiptir er hversu mikill munur er \u00e1 uppgj\u00f6ri eigna og skulda bankanna. \u00dea\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 vitum er a\u00f0 skv. h\u00e1lfs\u00e1rsuppgj\u00f6ri skuldu\u00f0u bankarnir 13.900 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na og \u00e1ttu 14.500 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na. Ef vi\u00f0 l\u00edtum framhj\u00e1 gjaldeyrissveiflum (enda l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 eignir og skuldir sveiflist jafnt \u00e1 \u00feeim vettvangi) og gerum r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir a\u00f0 eina breytan sem l\u00edta \u00fearf til s\u00e9 breytileiki \u00ed ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti eignasafnsins \u00fe\u00e1 er h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 l\u00edta til hlutabr\u00e9fav\u00edsitalna og meta r\u00fdrnun eignasafnsins til samr\u00e6mis vi\u00f0 l\u00e6kkun hlutabr\u00e9fa \u00e1 heimsv\u00edsu. \u00deannig v\u00e6ri h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 notast vi\u00f0 Dow Jones sem g\u00e6fi r\u00fdrnun upp \u00e1 t\u00e6plega 22%, sem \u00fe\u00fdddi raunl\u00e6kkun eigna ni\u00f0ur \u00ed 11.370 milljar\u00f0a. \u00deetta er sj\u00e1lfsagt vel \u00ed lagt, enda \u00e1h\u00e6ttan \u00ed eignasafni bankanna sj\u00e1lfsagt talsvert meiri en Dow Jones. Vi\u00f0 g\u00e6tum nota\u00f0 S&amp;P500 og fengi\u00f0 \u00fat a\u00f0 eignirnar hafi r\u00fdrna\u00f0 um r\u00edflega 25%. \u00deannig v\u00e6ri ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti\u00f0 \u00ed dag t\u00e6pir 10.700 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na sem er sj\u00e1lfsagt meira \u00ed \u00e1ttina, \u00fe\u00f3 \u00e9g efist um a\u00f0 eignasafn bankanna hafi veri\u00f0 jafn gott og S&amp;P. Til vi\u00f0b\u00f3tar \u00feessari st\u00f6\u00f0u kemur s\u00ed\u00f0an \u00fe\u00f6rfin fyrir a\u00f0 selja, sem veldur frekara ver\u00f0falli.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dear sem mig langar a\u00f0 vera bjarts\u00fdnn og gera r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir um 15% r\u00fdrnun vegna skyndis\u00f6lunnar \u00fe\u00e1 getum vi\u00f0 vona\u00f0 a\u00f0 eignir bankanna s\u00e9u \u00ed dag um 9.000 milljar\u00f0a vir\u00f0i. \u00deegar \u00fea\u00f0 er dregi\u00f0 fr\u00e1 13.900 milljar\u00f0a skuldinni stendur eftir mismunur upp \u00e1 4.900 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na. \u00deessi upph\u00e6\u00f0 er r\u00e9tt um 16 millj\u00f3nir kr\u00f3na \u00e1 hvert mannsbarn \u00e1 \u00cdslandi. \u00deessar 4.900 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na eru 3,75 f\u00f6ld verg landsframlei\u00f0sla (GDP) \u00e1rsins 2007.<\/p>\n<p>Ef vi\u00f0 ger\u00f0um allar eigur Bj\u00f6rg\u00falfsfe\u00f0ga uppt\u00e6kar \u00fe\u00e1 myndi \u00fea\u00f0 duga fyrir t\u00e6plega 10% af \u00fev\u00ed sem upp \u00e1 vantar ef mi\u00f0a\u00f0 er vi\u00f0 meintar eignir \u00feeirra \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0asta lista Forbes.com. Hins vegar hafa eignir \u00feeirra r\u00fdrna\u00f0 g\u00edfurlega s\u00ed\u00f0an, s\u00e9r \u00ed lagi vegna uppt\u00f6kunnar \u00e1 Landsbankanum. Eignir annarra \u00cdslendinga sem komu a\u00f0 rekstri bankanna eru mun minni og \u00ed sumum tilfellum n\u00e6stum horfnar, en hugsanlega v\u00e6ri h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 skrapa saman \u00ed 900 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na me\u00f0 peningum Bj\u00f6rg\u00falfsfe\u00f0ga, me\u00f0 s\u00f6lu \u00e1 einka\u00feotum og me\u00f0 a\u00f0 gera uppt\u00e6kar eignir af reikningum \u00ed Sviss, L\u00faxemb\u00farg, Karab\u00edahafinu og hvar annars sta\u00f0ar sem menn hafa komi\u00f0 varasj\u00f3\u00f0um s\u00ednum fyrir.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration:line-through\">A\u00f0 ofant\u00f6ldu s\u00f6g\u00f0u er \u00e1standi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00f3 ekki \u00f3leysanlegt, s\u00e9r \u00ed lagi \u00ed lj\u00f3si \u00feess a\u00f0 R\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0ur er a\u00f0 mestu skuldlaus<\/span>. Hins vegar eru nokkrir \u00f3vissu\u00fe\u00e6ttir \u00ed \u00feessum \u00fe\u00f6nkum sem \u00e9g hyggst telja upp.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hlutfall skulda og eigna bankanna \u00ed erlendum gjaldeyri.<\/li>\n<li>G\u00e6\u00f0i eignasafns bankanna er \u00ed \u00feessum reikningum tali\u00f0 svipa\u00f0 og uppbygging S&amp;P500, \u00fea\u00f0 er l\u00edklega ofmat \u00e1 g\u00e6\u00f0um \u00feeirra.<\/li>\n<li>Erfi\u00f0leikar \u00ed s\u00f6lu eigna og r\u00fdrnun \u00e1 ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti vegna skyndis\u00f6lu. H\u00e9r geri \u00e9g r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir 15% r\u00fdrnun sem er mj\u00f6g bjarts\u00fdnt \u00ed lj\u00f3si tilbo\u00f0s Green svo d\u00e6mi s\u00e9 teki\u00f0.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dea\u00f0 er l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 landsframlei\u00f0sla dragist saman n\u00e6stu \u00e1rin og hagv\u00f6xtur ver\u00f0i neikv\u00e6\u00f0ur. Auki\u00f0 atvinnuleysi og hrun \u00e1kve\u00f0inna atvinnugreina (svo sem fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lageirans) kemur til me\u00f0 a\u00f0 hafa \u00fear mikil \u00e1hrif.<\/li>\n<li>Reyndar m\u00e1 ekki gleyma \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 hluti bankatapsins lendir \u00e1 eigendum peningamarka\u00f0ssj\u00f3\u00f0a og annarra \u00f3trygg\u00f0ra eigna, \u00feannig a\u00f0 ekki er v\u00edst a\u00f0 allt lendi \u00e1 r\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0i.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a m\u00edn <\/strong>er \u00fev\u00ed s\u00fa a\u00f0 ef allt fer \u00e1 <strong>allra besta veg <\/strong>og vi\u00f0 gerum eignir uppt\u00e6kar, \u00fe\u00e1 megi gera r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir a\u00f0 mismunur \u00e1 eignum og skuldum bankanna s\u00e9 neikv\u00e6\u00f0ur um 4.000 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na e\u00f0a um \u00fea\u00f0 bil 3 f\u00f6ld verg landsframlei\u00f0sla. Fj\u00f6lskyldan m\u00edn skuldar \u00fev\u00ed r\u00e9tt um 51 millj\u00f3n kr\u00f3na \u00ed pakkanum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>VI\u00d0B\u00d3T<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p><em>R\u00e9tt er a\u00f0 taka fram h\u00e9r a\u00f0 gjaldeyrisbreytan sem \u00e9g sleppi h\u00e9r a\u00f0 ofan er mun veigameiri en \u00e9g vona\u00f0i. Mismunur eigna og skulda erlendis \u00ed mars s\u00ed\u00f0astli\u00f0num var a.m.k. 800 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na. A\u00f0 \u00f6\u00f0ru \u00f3breyttu \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir \u00fea\u00f0 l\u00edklega skuldaaukningu upp \u00e1 a\u00f0 minnsta kosti 600 milljar\u00f0ar kr\u00f3na mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 gengi kr\u00f3nunnar \u00ed dag. En \u00e9g hef hins vegar ekki n\u00e6gar uppl\u00fdsingar til a\u00f0 geta fullyrt n\u00e1kv\u00e6mlega hva\u00f0a \u00e1hrif gengi\u00f0 hefur.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Me\u00f0 \u00f6\u00f0rum or\u00f0um. \u00deessi f\u00e6rsla sn\u00fdst ekki um n\u00e1kv\u00e6ma \u00fatreikninga heldur st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0ur skulda. Me\u00f0 nokkurri vissu m\u00e1 halda \u00fev\u00ed fram a\u00f0 neikv\u00e6\u00f0 sta\u00f0a bankanna \u00feegar uppgj\u00f6ri l\u00fdkur ver\u00f0i einhvers sta\u00f0ar \u00e1 milli 4000 millja\u00f0a ef allt fer \u00e1 besta veg og 8000 milljar\u00f0a ef allt fer \u00e1 versta veg.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spurningin sem \u00f6llu m\u00e1li skiptir er hversu mikill munur er \u00e1 uppgj\u00f6ri eigna og skulda bankanna. \u00dea\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 vitum er a\u00f0 skv. h\u00e1lfs\u00e1rsuppgj\u00f6ri skuldu\u00f0u bankarnir 13.900 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na og \u00e1ttu 14.500 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na. Ef vi\u00f0 l\u00edtum framhj\u00e1 gjaldeyrissveiflum (enda l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 eignir og skuldir sveiflist jafnt \u00e1 \u00feeim vettvangi) og gerum r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir a\u00f0 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/2008\/10\/19\/hvad-skuldum-vid\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Hva\u00f0 skuldum vi\u00f0?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[21,85],"class_list":["post-622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-islenska","tag-business","tag-hruni"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}