{"id":1978,"date":"2008-09-12T16:26:02","date_gmt":"2008-09-12T20:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ispeculate.wpmudev.host\/main\/?p=1978"},"modified":"2008-09-12T16:26:02","modified_gmt":"2008-09-12T20:26:02","slug":"bjogun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/2008\/09\/12\/bjogun\/","title":{"rendered":"Bj\u00f6gun"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u00dea\u00f0 eru \u00fev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur ekki allar kannanir jafnar \u00feegar kemur a\u00f0 fr\u00e6\u00f0um um faglegt \u00fartak. \u00deannig er h\u00e9r \u00ed BNA yfirleitt notast vi\u00f0 landl\u00ednus\u00edma vi\u00f0 ger\u00f0 s\u00edmakannanna, sem veldur \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00f3l\u00edklegra er a\u00f0 f\u00f3lk undir \u00fer\u00edtugu s\u00e9 spurt. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00e1 svo sem einnig vi\u00f0 um f\u00f3lk sem er f\u00e1t\u00e6kt. Til a\u00f0 breg\u00f0ast vi\u00f0 svona bj\u00f6gun eru nota\u00f0ar \u00fdmsar bakgrunnsspurningar m.a. hva\u00f0 kosi\u00f0 var \u00ed s\u00ed\u00f0ustu kosningum og \u00feannig er hugsanlega h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 lei\u00f0r\u00e9tta skekkjuna \u00ed \u00fartakinu eitthva\u00f0, e\u00f0a me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 spyrja einstaklinga um flokks\u00fe\u00e1ttt\u00f6ku. H\u00e9r \u00ed BNA er nefnilega til \u00e1g\u00e6tar uppl\u00fdsingar um hlutf\u00f6ll \u00edb\u00faa sem tilheyra hvorum flokki fyrir sig. \u00de\u00e6r uppl\u00fdsingar lei\u00f0a t.d. \u00ed lj\u00f3s a\u00f0 \u00feeir sem skilgreina sig \u00ed Dem\u00f3krataflokknum eru um \u00fea\u00f0 bil 10% fleiri en telja sig tilheyra Rep\u00fablikunum.<\/p>\n

N\u00fa \u00ed \u00e1g\u00fast \u00e1kv\u00e1\u00f0u hins vegar fj\u00f6lm\u00f6rg kannanafyrirt\u00e6ki a\u00f0 breyta a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i sinni og mi\u00f0a kannanir vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 jafnmargir tilheyri b\u00e1\u00f0um flokkum. \u00deessi a\u00f0fer\u00f0 \u00e1samt velheppnu\u00f0u \u00feingi Rep\u00fablikanna hefur valdi\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0ur sko\u00f0anakannana s\u00ed\u00f0ustu vikna hafa sveiflast um allt a\u00f0 10% McCain \u00ed hag.<\/p>\n

\u00c9g held a\u00f0 enginn \u00feurfi a\u00f0 efast um a\u00f0 sagan um Sarah Palin hefur fari\u00f0 vel \u00ed marga. \u00c9g var sj\u00e1lfur spenntur fyrir r\u00f3t\u00e6kum umb\u00f3tasinna sem st\u00f6\u00f0va\u00f0i gl\u00f3rulausar vegaframkv\u00e6mdir, seldi \u00feotu me\u00f0 hagna\u00f0i \u00e1 eBay til a\u00f0 spara og sag\u00f0i upp kokkinum \u00ed r\u00edkisstj\u00f3rasetrinu til a\u00f0 s\u00fdna r\u00e1\u00f0deild. Spennan hefur a\u00f0 v\u00edsu minnka\u00f0 eftir a\u00f0 \u00e9g l\u00e6r\u00f0i a\u00f0 \u00feotan var ekki seld \u00e1 eBay og seldist \u00e1 undirver\u00f0i, kokkurinn var f\u00e6r\u00f0ur til \u00ed starfi vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 Sarah \u00e1kva\u00f0 a\u00f0 b\u00faa heima hj\u00e1 s\u00e9r en ekki \u00ed r\u00edkisstj\u00f3rab\u00fasta\u00f0num og \u00feiggja fer\u00f0adagpeninga fyrir a\u00f0 fer\u00f0ast \u00e1 milli. Hva\u00f0 vegaframkv\u00e6mdirnar var\u00f0ar, voru br\u00faarframkv\u00e6mdirnar st\u00f6\u00f0va\u00f0ar \u00ed Washington, \u00fer\u00e1tt fyrir bar\u00e1ttu Sarah fyrir peningum \u00ed verki\u00f0.<\/p>\n

En aftur a\u00f0 k\u00f6nnunum. Bj\u00f6gunin \u00ed k\u00f6nnuninni sem er kynnt h\u00e9r \u00e1 mbl.is s\u00e9st best \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 50% svarenda segjast hafa kosi\u00f0 Bush (sem n.b. ekki allir gangast vi\u00f0 h\u00e9r \u00ed BNA \u00ed dag), en einv\u00f6r\u00f0ungu 40% segjast hafa kosi\u00f0 T\u00f3mats\u00f3sukonunginn Kerry. \u00deetta eitt og s\u00e9r bendir til a\u00f0 ekki s\u00e9 allt sem s\u00fdnist \u00ed \u00fartakinu en \u00ed kosningum 2004 f\u00e9kk Bush 51% atkv\u00e6\u00f0a (62,040,606) en Kerry 48% (59,028,109).<\/p>\n

\u00c9g t\u00f3k ekki A\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i I \u00ed F\u00e9lagsv\u00edsindadeild H\u00cd, og \u00fev\u00ed ekki d\u00f3mb\u00e6r \u00e1 gildi \u00feess a\u00f0 breyta \u00fartaki \u00ed ra\u00f0k\u00f6nnunum. Hins vegar m\u00e1 \u00e6tla a\u00f0 \u00feessi breyting stu\u00f0li a\u00f0 meiri spennu \u00ed sko\u00f0anak\u00f6nnunum hj\u00e1 Bandar\u00edskum fj\u00f6lmi\u00f0lum n\u00e6stu daga og m\u00e1nu\u00f0i. Enda jafnar \u00feessi bj\u00f6gun leikinn fyrir frambj\u00f3\u00f0endur. Ef sko\u00f0anakannanir hafa \u00e1hrif \u00e1 ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0u kosninga, sem er ekki \u00f3sennilegt, \u00fea\u00f0 er alltaf \u00e1kve\u00f0inn h\u00f3pur sem vill tilheyra sigurli\u00f0inu, \u00fe\u00e1 er lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 \u00e1kv\u00f6r\u00f0un sko\u00f0anakannanafyrirt\u00e6kja um a\u00f0 breyta vinnubr\u00f6g\u00f0um s\u00ednum kemur verr vi\u00f0 Obama en McCain.<\/p>\n

\u00c9g er ekki a\u00f0 halda \u00fev\u00ed fram h\u00e9r a\u00f0 um sams\u00e6ri s\u00e9 a\u00f0 r\u00e6\u00f0a. Hitt er alveg lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 kosningar \u00fear sem annar frambj\u00f3\u00f0andinn hefur 10% forskot \u00ed k\u00f6nnunum er ekki gott s\u00f6luefni. Hvort a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 hafi hj\u00e1lpa\u00f0 kannanafyrirt\u00e6kjum \u00ed \u00e1kvar\u00f0anat\u00f6kunni er hins vegar alls \u00f3lj\u00f3st. En t\u00edmasetning breytingarinnar \u00ed kringum \u00feing flokkanna var snj\u00f6ll \u00fev\u00ed \u00fea\u00f0 au\u00f0velda\u00f0i kannendunum a\u00f0 r\u00e9ttl\u00e6ta sveifluna \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 v\u00edsa til \u00feess a\u00f0 vinnubr\u00f6g\u00f0 \u00feeirra v\u00e6ru breytt.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00dea\u00f0 eru \u00fev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur ekki allar kannanir jafnar \u00feegar kemur a\u00f0 fr\u00e6\u00f0um um faglegt \u00fartak. \u00deannig er h\u00e9r \u00ed BNA yfirleitt notast vi\u00f0 landl\u00ednus\u00edma vi\u00f0 ger\u00f0 s\u00edmakannanna, sem veldur \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00f3l\u00edklegra er a\u00f0 f\u00f3lk undir \u00fer\u00edtugu s\u00e9 spurt. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00e1 svo sem einnig vi\u00f0 um f\u00f3lk sem er f\u00e1t\u00e6kt. Til a\u00f0 breg\u00f0ast vi\u00f0 svona … Continue reading Bj\u00f6gun<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[18,118],"class_list":["post-1978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-islenska","tag-blog-is","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1978\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ispeculate.net\/writings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}